000 AXPZ20 KNHC 040305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N75W TO 11.5N100W TO 07N122W. The ITCZ continues from 07N123W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 76W and 89W, from 06N to 14N between 91W and 115W, and within 90 nm N of ITCZ between 125W and 133W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge west of the area is centered on a 1033 mb high near 38N149W and extends SE to near the Islas Revillagigedo. this pressure pattern will support moderate to fresh northwest breezes west of the Baja Peninsula through mid week. Winds will once again freshen west of the Baja Peninsula during the second half of the week in response to a low pressure trough developing over the Baja Peninsula. Fresh NE winds will affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 15N between 94.5W and 95.5W tonight as nocturnal drainage flow augments the pressure gradient generated over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec by modest high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico. Active convection will shift W across the area waters tonight through Monday morning associated with a developing area of broad low pressure SW of the Gulf. Surface low pressure is expected to gradually develop along the monsoon trough near 11N104W on Mon. The developing low will move WNW during the next several days. This low has a low probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 2 days and a high probability of developing into a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A major eruption of the Fuego Volcano in Guatemala occurred today, exploding will into the upper atmosphere and spreading ash in all directions. The vast majority of the ash is expected to be steered by the wind flow in the middle levels of the atmosphere there, and move off towards the northeast, and away from the forecast waters during the next day or so. However, some modest ash was likely carried away in the low level ENE flow across the local offshore waters. Expected areas of ash producing visibilities to 6 nm across the waters from 12N to the coast between 91W and 96W through Mon morning. See the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion under WMO/AWIPS headers AXNT20 KNHC/MIATWDAT for additional information. Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night, with moderate nocturnal offshore breezes expected to resume on Tue night. The monsoon trough extends east to west between 08N and 11N. Gentle to moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough through Wed. Gentle to moderate southwest winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south of the ridge, generally from 08N to 18N west of 125W tonight. The area will shift W of 140W by Tue afternoon as high pressure to the N shifts W. Northerly swell will propagate into the NE waters early Tue morning. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this swell will spread south to along 27N between 118W and 126W late Tue before beginning to disperse. Associated seas are expected to subside below 8 ft west of 121W by Wed night. $$ Stripling