000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031602
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1449 UTC Sun Jun 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 10N80W to 08N86W to 
09N93W to 10N100W to 13N107W to 07N116W. The ITCZ continues from
07N116W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 77W and 87W...from 
06N to 16N between 94W and 106W...from 08N to 10N between 107W
and 115W and within 60 nm either side of a line from 06N126W and
10N140W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh 
northwest breezes west of the Baja Peninsula through mid week. 
today before diminishing. Winds will once again freshen west of 
the Baja Peninsula during the second half of the week in response
to a low pressure trough developing over the Baja Peninsula.

Fresh to locally strong NE winds will affect the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec N of 15N between 94.5W and 95.5W tonight as nocturnal
drainage flow augments the pressure gradient generated over the 
Isthmus of Tehuantepec by modest high pressure over the gulf of 
Mexico.

Surface low pressure will gradually develop along the monsoon 
trough near 11N100W this weekend. The low will move west- 
northwest with the potential for gradual development. This low 
has a low probability of developing into a tropical cyclone 
during the next 2 days and a high probability of developing into 
a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. Please refer to the 
latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under 
WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional 
information. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast 
across and downstream of the gulf of Papagayo through Mon night, 
with moderate nocturnal offshore breezes expected to resume on 
Tue night. The monsoon trough extends east to west between 08N 
and 10N, with gentle to moderate E winds forecast elsewhere north
of the monsoon trough and gentle to moderate southwest winds 
forecast south of the monsoon trough.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
The surface ridge extending across the northern waters will 
gradually shift W during the next few days. Fresh trades, and 6 
to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south 
of the ridge, generally from 09N to 17N west of 125W through Mon.
The area of 8 ft seas currently between 10N and 14N W of 130W 
will shift W of 140W by Tue afternoon as high pressure to the N 
shifts W.

Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters early
Tue morning. Seas 8 ft or greater associated to this swell will 
spread south to along 27N between 118W and 126W late Tue before 
beginning to subside. Seas are expected to subside below 8 ft 
west of 121W on Wed night.
  
$$
CAM