000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022213 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 02 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west across the far southwestern Caribbean and across northern Panama and Costa Rica to the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N86W, then wiggles west between 08N and 11N to 09N117W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within an area bounded by a line from 16N99W to 08N80W to 04N92W to 08N113W to 16N99W, and within 90 nm either side of a lines from 07N120W to 08N124W and from 11N128W to 07N133w. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge west of the area will support a moderate to fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through late Sun. The gradient will relax with the winds diminishing to a light to gentle northwest breeze on Mon and continue through Wed with moderate northwest condtions developing again on Wed night. Northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will arrive at 32N120W on Mon night, with seas 8 ft of greater forecast north of 28N west of 119W on Tue night before beginning to subside briefly from the south. Another round of north swell will arrive across the waters north of 30N on Thu night. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are forecast across the gulf waters north of 30N through early Mon when moderate to fresh southerly flow will set up, and then persist through late Tue. A moderate northwest breeze will continue across the gulf waters south of 28N through late tonight. A trough will then extend north to south along 110W, with moderate southeast flow east of the trough. These moderate southeast winds will increase to a fresh breeze, and spread north across the entire gulf waters by Mon afternoon, then diminish some on Mon night into Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal drainage is forecast tonight, and fresh to strong drainage flow is forecast on Sun night. Gentle to moderate nocturnal northerly flow will resume on Mon night. A tropical surface low will gradually develop along the monsoon trough near 11N100W tonight through Sun, and move west-northwest maintaining moderate to fresh east winds over the north semicircle of the low, generally across the offshore waters from 12N to 18N between 97W and 103W on Mon and Tue, with seas building to 8 ft. Expect a surface low near 15N105W during the middle of next week with strong east winds across the offshore waters from 11N to 18N between 100W and 107W, with seas building to 15 ft. The low has a medium chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook under WMO/AWIPS headers ABPZ20 KNHC/MIATWOEP for additional information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast through Mon night, with moderate nocturnal breezes expected to resume on Tue night. The monsoon trough extends east to west between 08N and 10N, with gentle to moderate E winds expected elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate southwest winds forecast south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft seas will prevail across the forecast waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N138W to 11N115W. Fresh trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are expected to continue across the tropics south of the ridge, generally from 09N to 17N west of 125W through Mon. The next round of fresh to locally strong north winds, and northerly swell to 8 ft will reach along 32N between 122W and 128W on Mon. Although the the north winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh breeze on Tue, the associated swell will propagate south to along 27N between 118W and 126W late Tue before beginning to subside from the south, with seas forecast less than 8 ft west of 121W on Wed night. $$ Nelson