000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 702 UTC Sat Jun 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N93W to 12N101W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to 09N133W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 03N to 07N between 79W and 83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 04N to 10N between 87W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 10N to 16N between 92W and 97W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 06N to 08N west of 136W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through late Sun night, with moderate conditions developing again during the middle of next week. A moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze will prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California through early today. Low pressure will develop along the monsoon trough near 11N100W this weekend. This low pressure area will be one to watch with interest next week as conditions will be favorable for the low to further develop into a tropical cyclone. There is currently a medium chance that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast across and downstream of the gulf of Papagayo tonight, with a moderate breeze expected on Sun night. The monsoon trough extends east to west between 08N and 10N, with gentle to moderate E winds forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and gentle to moderate southwest winds forecast south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and low pressure within the monsoon trough, will support moderate to fresh tradewinds along the tradewind belt from 10N to 20N west of 125W. The duration and fetch of the fresh tradewinds will support seas in the 6-8 ft range over this area. The area of high pressure will weaken next week, which will loosen the pressure gradient. This will diminish winds and help for seas to subside below 8 ft over this area. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters, increasing seas to 6 to 8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W by Tuesday morning. The swell will spread southward while slowly subsiding through Wednesday. $$ AL