000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0300 UTC Sat Jun 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N91W to 11N99W to 10N124W to 09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough between 85W and 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 95W and 98W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 90 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 100W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 125W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 180 nm south of the ITCZ west of 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through late Sun night, with moderate conditions developing again during the middle of next week. A moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze will prevail over the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sat. Low pressure will develop along the monsoon trough near 11N100W this weekend. This low pressure area will be one to watch with interest next week as conditions will be favorable for the low to further develop into a tropical cyclone. There is currently a medium chance that this low will develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast across and downstream of the gulf of Papagayo through Sat night, with a moderate breeze expected on Sun night. The monsoon trough extends east to west between 08N and 10N, with gentle to moderate E winds forecast elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and gentle to moderate southwest winds forecast south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft seas will prevail across the forecast waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends across the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, and low pressure within the monsoon trough, will support moderate to fresh tradewinds along the tradewind belt from 10N to 20N west of 125W. The duration and fetch of the fresh tradewinds will support seas in the 6-8 ft range over this area. The area of high pressure will weaken next week, which will loosen the pressure gradient. This will diminish winds and help for seas to subside below 8 ft over this area. Northerly swell will propagate into the northern waters, increasing seas to 6 to 8 ft north of 25N between 120W and 130W by Tuesday morning. The swell will spread southward while slowly subsiding through Wednesday. $$ AL