000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012145 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 01 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west off the Pacific coast of Colombia at 09N79W across the northern Gulf of Panama and across interior Costa Rica to the Pacific Coast of Costa Rica at 08N81W to 08N93W, then turns northwest to 12N102W, then turns southwest to 08N120W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within an area bounded by a line from 16N100W to 08N78W to 03N77W to 08N108W to 16N100W, and within 180 nm either side of a line from 10N124W to 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast orientated low level ridge continues across the East Pacific well beyond 250 nm seaward, with the associated pressure gradient forecast to support a moderate to fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through late Sun night, then diminish to a light to gentle northwest breeze on Mon through Tue night with moderate northwest condtions developing again on Wed night. Northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 10 ft seas, will arrive at 32N120W late Mon, with seas 8 ft of greater forecast north of 27N west of 118W on Tue before beginning to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are forecast across the gulf waters north of 30N through early Mon when moderate to fresh southerly flow will set up, and then persist through late Tue. A moderate to fresh northwest breeze will continue across the gulf waters south of 28N through early Sat when a relaxing pressure gradient will support a moderate northwest breeze through early Sun when light and variable conditions are forecast to resume and continue through Sun night, with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow forecast on Mon and Tue. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to fresh nocturnal drainage is forecast to resume on Sat night. Model guidance is suggesting fresh to strong drainage flow on Sun night. A tropical surface low will develop near 11N100W on Sat night and move west-northwest maintaining moderate east winds over the north semicircle of the low through early Thu when the gradient should support fresh east winds with seas to 8 ft across the offshore waters from 12N to 18N between 101W and 108W, and continue through Fri. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast through Sat night, with a moderate breeze expected on Sun night. Otherwise, the monsoon trough extends east to west between 08N and 10N, with gentle to moderate E winds north of the monsoon trough, and gentle to moderate southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 3 to 5 ft seas will prevail across the forecast waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends into the area from near 32N138W to 16N110W. Fresh trades, and 6 to 8 ft seas, are observed across the tropics south of the ridge from 09N to 11N west of 137W. These conditions will gradually diminish by tonight, then redevelop again on Sat, and continue through Mon evening. The next round of fresh to locally strong north winds, and northerly swell to 8 ft will reach along 32N between 122W and 128W on Sun night. Although the the north winds will diminish to a moderate to fresh breeze early next week, the associated swell will propagate south to along 25N between 118W and 127W on Tue before beginning to subside from the south, with seas less than 8 ft on Wed night. $$ Nelson