000 AXPZ20 KNHC 292214 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends northwest along the coast of Nicaragua from 11.5N86W to 14N95W, then turns southwest to 07N120W to 07N124W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west-northwest to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed within 240 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 10N94W to 10N110W, and within 60 nm of 09N139W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast low level ridge continues across the East Pacific well beyond 250 nm seaward with the associated pressure gradient forecast to support a moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through Wed night when a gentle to locally moderate breeze is anticipated. Moderate to locally fresh conditions will develop again on Thu evening, and then continue into the upcoming weekend. Northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive west of a line from 32N118W to 27.5N119.5W on Wed, and continue through Thu, then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night. Gulf of California: Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are forecast between 29.5N and 31N until late Wed when fresh to locally strong flow is expected for a few hours, but ending before sunrise on Thu, all associated with a weak surface low forecast near 31N114W. Light and variable winds are then forecast across the northern gulf through Sun night, with moderate southerly flow forecast on Mon. Light and variable winds expected across the gulf waters south of 29.5N until late Thu when a moderate to fresh northwest breeze will begin across the waters south of 26N, with these conditions then spreading north to along 27.5N on Fri and Fri night before beginning to subside. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be light and variable through the upcoming weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is forecast to gradually shift southward as low pressure north of the area weakens. This pattern will support light to gentle southwest to west winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas, except for gentle to occasionally moderate offshore nocturnal winds near gap areas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends into the area from 32N140W to 11N114W. Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are observed across the tropics south of the ridge from 10N to 20N west of 127W. These conditions will gradually diminish through Thu. Fresh to locally strong north winds, and long period N swell in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, is observed north of 31N between 125W and 132W, with 8 to 10 ft swell observed elsewhere north of 28.5N between 124W and 135W. This swell will continue south to along 24N on Wed before beginning to subside, with seas forecast to less than 8 ft on Fri. The strong north winds across the waters north of 30N should diminish to 20 kt or less on Wed. $$ Nelson