000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291551
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 29 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1545 UTC.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends northwest along the coast of 
Nicaragua to 12.5N87W, then turns west to 13N90W to 13N98W, then 
turns southwest to 07N122W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ which continues west-northwest to beyond 
08N140W. Isolated moderate to strong convection is observed 
within 240 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 12N94W to 
10N109W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast low level ridge is analyzed well beyond 
250 nm with the associated pressure gradient forecast to support 
a moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja 
Peninsula through Wed night, with these conditions developing 
again on Thu evening, and then continuing into the upcoming 
weekend. Northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will 
arrive at 30N120W on Wed through Thu, then subside to less than 
8 ft on Thu night.  
   
Gulf of California: Light and variable winds expected 
across the gulf waters south of 29.5N for the next several days.
Moderate to locally fresh southwesterly winds are forecast 
between 29.5N and 31N until late Wed when fresh to locally
strong flow is expected for a few hours but ending before 
sunrise on Thu all associated with a weak surface low forecast 
near 31N114W. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be light and variable 
during the next few days.    
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is forecast to gradually shift southward as 
low pressure north of the area weakens.  This pattern will 
support light to gentle southwest to west winds, and 3 to 5 ft 
seas, with light offshore nocturnal winds near gap areas.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A surface ridge extends into the area from 32N140W to 11N114W.
Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 10 ft seas, are 
observed south of the ridge from 10N to 20N west of 127W. These 
conditions will gradually diminish through Thu. 

Fresh to locally strong north winds, and long period N swell in 
the form of 8 to 11 ft seas, is observed north of 31N between 
125W and 132W, with 8 to 11 ft swell observed elsewhere north of 
28.5N between 124W and 135W. This swell will continue south to 
along 24N on Wed before beginning to subside, with seas forecast 
to less than 8 ft on Fri. The north winds should diminish to 20 
kt or less on Wed. 
  
$$
Nelson