000 AXPZ20 KNHC 290853 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 729 UTC Tue May 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends NW from Panama near 09N79W through Costa Rica and Nicaragua and along the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala to 13N92W, then turns WSW to 08N118W to 08N124W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ continues W to beyond 08N140W. Isolated moderate and strong convection is present within an area bounded by 07N81W to 14N91W to 10N107W to 05N88W to 07N81W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends SE from expansive 1038 mb high pressure centered over the central Pacific near 43N147W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge will support a fresh NW breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through early Tue night, followed by a moderate northwest breeze through late Thu as the pressure gradient tightens and generates fresh NW flow again late this week. Northwest swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive near 30N120W Wed night. The swell will then subside and allow seas to subside to between 6 and 7 ft by Fri morning. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are expected through early Thu, except that a fresh to locally strong southwest breeze is forecast between 29.5N and 31N Tue evening through early Wed. A strong S to SW breeze is expected Wed evening through sunrise Thu as a weak surface low develops near 31N114W. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be light and variable during the next few days. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is forecast to gradually shift southward through Fri as low pressure north of the area weakens. This pattern will support light to gentle southwest to west winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends into the area from 32N140W to 13N111W. Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, are observed south of the ridge from 10N to 20N west of 120W. These conditions will gradually diminish through Thu. Fresh to locally strong north winds, and long period N swell in the form of 8 to 10 ft seas has begun to affect the waters along 32N between 125W and 132W. The associated north swell will propagate south to along 27N between 127W and 135W today. Although the winds in this area will diminish to a moderate breeze on Thu, the associated area of 8 ft seas will spread to cover the waters N of a line from 30N119W to 26N125W to 23N136W to 24N140W by Wed evening. This area will not subside to less than 8 ft until late Fri. $$ CAM