000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282145
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon May 28 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2145 UTC.  
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends northwest along the coasts of El 
Salvador and Guatemala to 13N87W to 15N95W, then turns southwest 
to 10N110W to 09N125W where scatterometer winds indicate a 
transition to an ITCZ which continues west to beyond 08N140W. 
Isolated moderate and strong convection is noted within 210 nm 
either side of a line from 06N78W to 10N114W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side 
of a line from 08N120W to 12N125W to 10N132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast low level ridge is analyzed well beyond 
250 nm with the associated pressure gradient forecast to support 
a fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula through 
early Tue night, followed by a moderate northwest breeze through 
late Thu with the pressure gradient forecast to tighten 
supporting fresh northwest flow again late this week.  Northwest 
swell, in the form of 7 to 9 ft seas, will arrive at 30N120W on 
Wed night, then subside to less than 8 ft on Thu night.  
   
Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds across the 
central and southern Gulf waters will diminish this evening. 
Light and variable winds are expected by early Tue, with little 
change through early Thu, except a fresh southwest breeze is 
forecast between 29.5N and 31N on Tue evening through early Wed, 
and a fresh to locally strong southwest breeze is expected on 
Wed evening through sunrise Thu as a weak surface low develops 
near 31N114W. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be light and variable 
during the next few days.    
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is forecast to gradually shift southward as 
low pressure north of the area weakens.  This pattern will 
support light to gentle southwest to west winds, and 3 to 5 ft 
seas.
  
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A surface ridge extends into the area from 32N137W to 11N116W.
Fresh to locally strong trades, and 7 to 9 ft seas, are observed 
south of the ridge from 10N to 20N west of 125W.  These 
conditions will gradually diminish through Thu. 

Fresh to locally strong north winds, and long period N swell in 
the form of 8 to 10 ft seas, will arrive along 32N between 125W 
and 132W on Mon. The associated north swell will propagate south 
to along 27N between 127W and 135W on Tue.  Although the winds 
will diminish to a moderate breeze on Thu, the associated seas 
will not subside to less than 8 ft until late Fri.    
  
$$
Nelson