000 AXPZ20 KNHC 272136 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12.5N87W TO 12N100W TO 10N118W, then transitions to ITCZ and continues on to 08N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 80W and 96W, from 05.5N to 10.5N between 99W and 114W, and from 06N to 10.5N between 118W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the region W of 105W, where a 1030 mb high near 37N136W extends SE across the region to just SW of the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will continue across the offshore waters of Baja California today, then become fresh tonight through Tue. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will prevail across this area through the weekend then diminish gradually Mon and Tue. To the east of 100W and Cabo San Lucas, gentle NW to W winds prevail across the offshore waters to Puerto Angel. NW to N winds will freshen offshore and to the south of Cabo San Lucas this afternoon through tonight before winds diminish slightly late Mon through Wed as the high reorganizes to the NW. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected across the Gulf waters today, with strong afternoon and evening sea breezes recurring along the Mexican coastline from Mazatlan to Guaymas through Mon. A low pressure trough developing over the Baja Peninsula will cause winds over the Gulf to light to gentle by Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be variable during the next few days, with moderate NW to N winds at night and light SW to S winds during the late mornings and afternoons. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is displaced well N of its climatological position in response to elongated low pressure that persists from Central America and the Yucatan peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico, where Subtropical Storm Alberto has formed. This pressure pattern will persist across the regional Pacific waters through at least Wed and support light to moderate SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell for the waters west of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, the ridge building over the north central Pacific is producing a modest pressure gradient across the trade wind belt, with moderate to fresh winds observed in satellite-derived wind data from 09N to 24N to the west of 120W. Seas are running 6 to 10 ft across this zone this afternoon and will change very little through Tue. The high is forecast to reorganize to the NW Tue through Wed and then shift westward later in the week. This will produce a very slight decrease in areal coverage of the fresh trade winds into mid week. Deepening low pressure over the Desert SW of the U.S. will combine with building high pressure W of California to tighten the pressure gradient along the California coast. Long period N swell generated by these winds will cause seas N of 25N between 120W and 135W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Wed morning. $$ Stripling