000 AXPZ20 KNHC 271604 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N91.5W TO 11N92.5W TO 12N104W TO 07N123W, then transitions to ITCZ near 07N124W to low pres near 09N138W 1010 mb. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 78W and 100W, from 05N to 10N between 100W and 113W, and from 06.5N to 10.5N between 121W and 127W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the region W of 105W, where a 1030 mb high near 37N138W extends SE across the region to just SW of the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds will continue across the offshore waters of Baja California today, then become fresh tonight through Tue. Seas of 6 to 9 ft will prevail across this area through the weekend then diminish gradually Mon and Tue. To the east of 100W and Cabo San Lucas, gentle NW to W winds prevail this morning across the offshore waters to Puerto Angel. NW to N winds will freshen offshore and to the south of Cabo San Lucas this afternoon through tonight before diminishing area wide Mon as the high shifts northward. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected across the Gulf waters today, with strong afternoon and evening sea breezes recurring along the Mexican coastline from Mazatlan to Guaymas through Mon. A low pressure trough developing over the Baja Peninsula will cause winds over the Gulf to light to gentle by Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds are expected to be variable during the next few days, with moderate NW to N winds at night and light SW to S winds during the late mornings and afternoons. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is displaced well N of its climatological position in response to elongated low pressure that persists from Central America and the Yucatan peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico. This pressure pattern will persist across the regional Pacific waters through at least Wed and support light to moderate SW to W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell for the waters west of Central America. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Elsewhere, the ridge building over the north central Pacific is producing a modest pressure gradient across the trade wind belt, with moderate to fresh winds observed in satellite-derived wind data from 10N to 25N to the west of 120W. A 1010 mb low pressure center is drifting WSW across far SW portions of the discussion area near 09N138W. A broad area of fresh to strong NE winds and seas 8 to 9 ft is evident near the low from 11N to 16N between 130W and 140W. The low will weaken to a trough today as it translates westward. Meanwhile the expansive high centered over the central Pacific will shift E over the NE Pacific through tonight to maintain fresh trade winds and seas from 7 to 9 ft across the trade wind belt. The high is then forecast to drift northwest Mon through Tue night with a very slight decrease in areal coverage of the fresh trade winds. Deepening low pressure over the Desert SW will combine with building high pressure W of California to tighten the pressure gradient along the California coast. Long period N swell generated by these winds will cause seas N of 25N between 120W and 135W to build to between 8 and 10 ft by Wed morning. $$ Stripling