000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 230 UTC Sat May 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 14N91W to 11N95W to 10N105W, then transitions to the ITCZ which continues to 09N113W to 07N122W to 10N130W. The ITCZ resumes from 10N134W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 12N between 108W and 115W and 06N to 09N between 120W and 125W. Low pressure 1011 mb splits the ITCZ near 11.5N132W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present in the east quadrant of the low within 120 nm. Convergent low-level winds to the SE of the monsoon trough are generating scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within an area bounded by 08N80W to 12N86W to 11N97W to 05N89W to 08N80W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strengthening ridge extends SE into the region from a 1032 mb high centered near 34N147W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Fresh NW to N winds across the offshore waters of Baja California will increase a bit tonight through late Sat, then persist through Sun. Seas across this area are currently running 5-7 ft and are expected to gradually build to between 6 and 9 ft Sat night and Sun. Gulf of California: A fresh W to SW breeze is expected N of 29N tonight in response to a low pressure trough over the Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate NW winds will prevail across the central and southern Gulf through Sunday, with strong afternoon through evening sea breezes along the Mexican coastline from Mazatlan to Guaymas each of the next few days. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is expected through early Sat. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough is displaced N of its climatological position in response to broad low pressure that has formed over the Yucatan peninsula and Central America. This pressure pattern will support moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds over the waters west of Central America through Mon, with seas expected to be generally 4 to 7 ft through Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... NW swell associated with a dissipated frontal boundary will maintain 8 ft seas in the waters N of 25N W of 133W through Sat morning. Elsewhere, the building ridge over the north central Pacific is producing a modest pressure gradient across the tradewind belt, with moderate to fresh winds observed in satellite-derived wind data from 10N to 20N to the west of 120W. A 1011 mb low pressure center was seen in visible satellite imagery near 11.5N132W, and showed a broad area of 20 to 25 kt NE winds in the N semicircle of the low within 300 nm. The low will weaken to a trough by late Sat as it shifts westward. Meanwhile the expansive high centered over the central Pacific will shift E over the NE Pacific, and maintain fresh trade winds and seas from 7 to 9 ft across the tradewind belt through Tue. $$ CAM