000 AXPZ20 KNHC 242148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the Caribbean coast of Colombia at 09N76W across the northern Costa Rica Gulf to 11N87W to 10N105W, then dips southwest to 08N112W, the northwest to 10N124W to 09N135W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either side of a line from 07N78W to 08N85W, within 300 nm either side of a line from 12N90W to 10N119W, then narrows to within 120 nm either side of a line from 11N121W to 09N140W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast low level ridge will extend across the far offshore waters from near 27N120W to near 15N102W this evening, and then meander in this position into the upcoming weekend. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient that will support a moderate to locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula beginning this evening. Further tightening of the pressure gradient is forecast on Fri, with locally strong conditions forecast within about 180 nm of the west coast of Baja beginning on Fri night, and then continuing through sunrise on Sun. Associated seas are forecast to build to 5 to 8 ft during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: A fresh southwest breeze is expected between 29.5N and 31N tonight, and a fresh to locally strong breeze is expected on Fri evening as a weak surface low develops briefly near 31N114W. The low will move east on Sat with a moderate northwest breeze forecast across the gulf waters north of 29N in its wake. A gentle, to locally moderate, northwest breeze will continue across the central and southern Gulf of California through Fri morning when a tightening pressure gradient will support a fresh northwest breeze that will persist through early Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal drainage flow is expected through Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light southerly winds are expected through Fri morning, then moderate southwest flow is forecast through Sun morning with seas of 3 to 6 ft throughout this period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface high is centered near 26N123W with a ridge extending southeast to near 15N100W. The high is blocking the forward progress of a weakening cold front along a position from 30N128W to near 24N140W with a weak surface low evident on the front near 32N132W. The front will continue slowly east and lose identity from 32N120W to 26N128W on Fri night into Sat. Although only fresh winds northerly winds are forecast west of the front, northwest swell will maintain an area of 6 to 8 ft seas across the waters from 29N to 32N through Fri afternoon. The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a surface low develops along the ITCZ near 10.5N132W tonight resulting in fresh to possibly strong trades within 480 nm north of low as seas build to 8 ft. The low should drift west and gradually dissipate near 10N135W during the upcoming weekend. $$ Nelson