000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240935
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 UTC Thu May 24 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The monsoon trough extends west from 10N86W to 08N106W to 
09N135W. ITCZ is depicted from that point to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm either side
of the monsoon trough, while scattered moderate convection
prevails along the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast surface ridge will meander just beyond 
250 nm seaward of northern and central Mexico for the next few 
days. Moderate northwest flow is observed west of 100W, and light
to gentle northwest flow is observed east of 100W, with 4 to 7 
ft seas throughout. Little change is forecast until this evening,
when a tightening pressure gradient will produce a moderate to 
locally fresh northwest breeze west of the Baja Peninsula. 
Locally strong conditions are forecast within about 60 nm of the 
west coast of Baja beginning on Fri night, with seas building to 
5 to 8 ft during the upcoming weekend.
  
Gulf of California: A moderate nocturnal southwest breeze is 
expected along 30N for the next several days. A moderate 
northwest breeze is forecast to begin across the southern Gulf 
of California today and continue through the weekend.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected 
through Fri night.     
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light southerly winds are expected through the weekend. Current 
seas of 4 to 7 ft should subside to 3 to 5 ft by Fri.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A surface high is centered near 26N123W with a ridge extending 
southeast to near 15N103W. The high will shift southeast 
allowing a cold front to reach a position from 31N130W to 
26N134W this evening. The front will continue east eventually 
losing identity from 32N124W to 25N130W on Fri night into Sat. 
Although only fresh winds northerly winds are forecast west of 
the front, northwest swell will maintain an area of 6 to 8 ft 
seas across the waters from 28N to 32N through late Fri.

The pressure gradient is forecast to tighten as a surface low 
develops along the ITCZ near 10N133W on Fri resulting in fresh 
to possibly strong trades within 480 nm north of low as seas 
build to 8 ft. The low should drift west and gradually dissipate 
near 10N135W during the upcoming weekend.
  
$$

ERA