000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190320
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
320 UTC Sat May 19 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N120W to a 1010
mb low pressure area centered 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from
there to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
06N to 10N east of 110W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds persist off Baja 
California between a 1025 mb high pressure centered west of the 
area and lower pressure over northwest Mexico. Seas are 5 to 8 ft
off Baja California with a component of SW swell, subsiding to 
less than 8 ft overnight. Moderate northwesterly winds will 
persist off the coast of Baja California thereafter through Wed. 
However, seas are forecast to build to 8 ft in longer period SW 
swell off Baja California Mon morning continuing through Wed 
morning. 

For the Gulf of California, variable light to gentle winds with 
seas to 4 ft will dominate through Wed.

Light to gentle northerly flow with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell 
is along the remainder of the coast of Mexico. Seas are forecast 
to increase to 8 ft Mon morning and subsiding to less than 8 ft
through mid week.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf 
the entire forecast period as weak pressure will prevail across 
Central America. Seas of 4-7 ft are forecast over the Gulf and 
nearby waters through mid week due to long period SW swell.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast 
through Wed with seas of 4-6 ft in long period SW swell, 
building to 5-7 ft on Mon as the swell reaches the coasts of 
Panama and Colombia. Expect big waves along those coasts.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected to the south 
of the monsoon trough with light to gentle variable winds north 
of trough as a weak pressure pattern remains over Central 
America. Seas of 6-7 ft in long period SW swell west of the 
Galapagos Islands are expected to propagate northward Sat 
through late Tue next week building to 9 ft Sat.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A cold front is moving through the eastern Pacific and entering
into the northwest corner of the discussion. The subtropical
ridge remains weak as the front approaches the area, but it is
strong enough to support moderate to locally fresh trade winds 
in the deep tropics. Seas are approaching 8 ft in pockets north
of the monsoon trough/ITCZ in areas of fresh trade winds. The
front will weaken as it shifts eastward today. The ridge will
build eastward in the wake of the dissipating front, allowing the
areal extent of the trade winds, and subsequently the areas of 8
ft seas to expand over the deep tropics. Meanwhile cross 
equatorial southerly swell continues to propagate into the 
region, with seas reaching 8 ft as far north as 10N between 95W 
and 125W early in the week. Various wave model guidance shows the
large SW swell encompassing most of the region south of 20N and 
east of 120W by mid week. Meanwhile, weak 1010 mb low pressure 
along the monsoon trough near 120W will drift west through early 
next week. Fresh trade winds north of the low pressure may reach 
20 to 25 kt by early next week as the ridge to the north builds.
No significant development is expected. 

$$
Christensen