000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171604
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 17 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1530 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis reaches from 08N78W to 10N90W to 09N109W 
to a 1010 MB low pressure near 10N119W to 06N131W. The ITCZ 
begins near 06N131W and continues beyond 03N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 210 NM south of the monsoon trough 
east of 105W...within 150 NM north of the monsoon trough east of 
106W and within 270 NM either side of the ITCZ. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N 
between 107W and 112W, and from 04N to 10N between 114W and 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh northerly winds are off Baja California between a 1022 mb 
high pressure centered west of the area and lower pressure over 
northwest Mexico. Seas in this region are roughly 5 to 6 ft. A 
middle to upper level trough will move into southern California 
Fri and Sat clipping Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf 
of California,  thus supporting the development of fresh to 
strong NW winds at night with seas to 8 ft. Looking ahead, 
moderate NW flow will persist through Tue.

For the Gulf of California, moderate NW flow with 2 to 4 ft seas
will persist through late today. Fresh to strong westerly gap 
winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California tonight in
the wake of a weak trough moving across the region. Little 
change is anticipated through the remainder of the period.

Farther south along the remainder of the coast of Mexico, weak 
northerly flow is noted. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with a component of 
SW swell. 
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf 
the entire forecast period as weak pressure will prevail across 
Central America. Seas of 4-7 ft are forecast over the Gulf and 
nearby waters through Tue.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast 
through Tue with seas of 4-6 ft in long period SW swell, 
building to 5-7 ft on Mon as the swell reaches the coasts of 
Panama and Colombia. Expect big waves along those coasts.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected to the south 
of the monsoon trough with light to gentle variable winds north 
of trough as a weak pressure pattern remains over Central 
America. Seas are forecast to build to 6-7 ft in long period SW 
swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight and 
continuing through the weekend. Wave mode guidance indicates 
that these seas will build to 8 ft on Mon and will subside Mon 
night.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high is centered near 27N128W, with a ridge axis 
extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
Farther south, 1010 mb low pressure is centered along the 
monsoon trough near 10N118W with scattered moderate showers and 
thunderstorms within 400 nm in the southeast quadrant of the low 
pressure. Gentle to moderate northerly breezes are noted north 
of 20N within the ridge, and moderate to fresh trade winds 
farther south to the monsoon trough. Farther south, seas of 7 to 
8 ft in a new group of SW swell are reaching the equator. 

$$
Ramos