000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162157
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 16 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2015 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 8N78W to 08N84W 
to 10N95W to 09N110W to 1011 mb low pressure near 12.5N117W to 
06N127W. The ITCZ axis begins near 06N127W and continue to 
05N133W then resumes west of a surface trough near 03N137W and 
continues beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 
93W and between 100W and 110W. Scattered strong convection is 
within 210 nm north of the monsoon trough between 99W and 107W. 
Numerous strong convection is within 330 NM SE semicircle of 
1011 mb low pressure near 12.5N117W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 210 nm NW quadrant of same low pressure and 
from 08N to 12N between 122W and 128W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high centered near 28N125W extends a ridge axis SE 
across the offshore waters west of Baja California, thus 
supporting fresh NW to N winds north of 23N. These winds will 
increase to fresh to locally strong speeds this evening and Thu 
evening as the ridge strengthens slightly. Seas over these 
waters are in the 5-7 ft range, and will build to 8 ft at night 
today and Thu.

Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are over the 
northern Gulf of California while gentle to moderate NW winds 
continue across the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh to locally 
strong winds will develop Thu night in the northern gulf from 
29N to 31N west of 113W and will diminish to less than 20 kt 
early Fri.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to gentle variable winds are expected 
to prevail across the Gulf region through Tue as a weak pressure 
pattern will remain over southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan 
Peninsula.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf 
the entire forecast period as weak pressure will prevail across 
Central America. Seas of 4-7 ft are forecast over the gulf and 
nearby waters through Tue.

Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast 
through Tue with seas of 4-6 ft in long period SW swell, 
building to 5-7 ft on Mon as the swell reaches the coasts of 
Panama and Colombia. Expect increasing wave action along those 
coasts.

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected to the south 
of the monsoon trough with light to gentle variable winds north 
of trough as a weak pressure pattern remains over Central 
America. Seas are forecast to build to 6-7 ft in long period SW 
swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands tonight and 
continuing through the weekend. Wave mode guidance indicates 
that these seas will build to 8 ft on Mon and will subside Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high is centered near 28N125W, with a ridge axis 
extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh NE-E trades west of 
114W being the strongest winds within 105 nm NW quadrant of a 
1011 mb low near 12.5N117W and within 210 nm north of a surface 
trough that extends from 10N132W to 02S137W. Latest altimeter 
data show seas up to 8 ft in the NW quadrant of the low. Seas 
elsewhere across this area of trades are 6-7 ft, increasing to 8 
ft in SW swell through the weekend.

$$
Ramos