000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 8N78W to 08N83W to 08N108W to 10N117W to 07N125W. The ITCZ axis begins near 07N126W and continue to 06N131W then resumes west of a surface trough near 04N135W and continues beyond 02N140W. Scattered strong convection is noted within 210 nm south of the monsoon trough east of 117W and within 210 nm north of the monsoon trough between 117W and 127W. Scattered moderate isolated convection is elsewhere from 8N to 15N east of 103W, from 01N to 05N between 128W and 136W, and from 06N to 09N west of 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE oriented high pressure ridge prevails across the offshore waters west of Baja California, producing fresh NW to N winds north of 23N. These winds will increase to fresh to locally strong speeds this evening through Fri afternoon as the ridge strengthens slightly. Seas over these waters are in the 5- 7 ft range, and will build slightly today through early Friday to 6-8 ft. Gulf of California: Light and variable winds are over the northern Gulf of California while gentle to moderate NW winds continue across the remainder of the Gulf. Fresh NW onshore winds are forecast along the coast of Mexico from 25N to 27N this evening continuing through early Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds will develop Thu night in the northern gulf from 29N to 31N west of 113W and will diminish to less than 20 kt early Fri. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Light to gentle variable winds are expected to prevail across the Gulf region through Mon as a weak pressure pattern remains over southeastern Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf most of the forecast period as a weak pressure remains across Central America. Seas of 4-7 ft over the gulf and nearby waters will continue through Mon. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast through Monday, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period SW swell, building to 5-7 ft on Mon as the swell reaches the coasts of Panama and Colombia. Expect increasing wave action along those coasts. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle variable winds north of trough as a weak pressure pattern remains over Central America. Seas are forecast to build to 6-7 ft in long period SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today and continuing through the next few days. Wave mode guidance indicates that these seas will build to 8 ft on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1020 mb high is centered at 28N126W, with a ridge axis extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the tropics is rather weak allowing for moderate to at time fresh NE- E trades west of 138W. Seas across this area of trades are 6-8 ft, and should change little through Thu. N of 22N, seas are 5-6 ft west of 118W and are expected to change little through early Fri, except in the far northeastern part of the area the seas are expected to build some during Fri as long-period SW swell combines with NW swell. $$ Ramos