000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140322 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 08N79W to 07N93W to 08N100W, and northwestward from there to a 1009 mb low at 12N115W. It continues to 05N120W to 05N130W, where latest scatterometer data indicated it transitions to the ITCZ axis to beyond the area at 06N140W. Scattered strong convection exists from 07N to 10N between 115W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is seen from 05N to 10N between 83W and 92W, and from 04N to 08N between 94W and 101W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A NW to SE oriented high pressure ridge is present across the offshore waters west of Baja California. It is bringing gentle to moderate northwest winds over those waters. These winds will continue through Mon afternoon, then increase to moderate to fresh Mon night and Tue as the ridge strengthens slightly and while at the same time it begins to builds east-southeastward. Seas will be in the 5-7 ft range through early Wed, and build to 6-8 ft afterwards. Gulf of California: South to southwest winds of 15-20 kt are over the northern sector of the Gulf of California from 30N to 31N west of 114W. These winds become light and variable Mon night. Gentle to moderate northwest winds will continue across the remainder of the Gulf through Wed, except for a brief instance of fresh to strong northwest winds near and along the coast of Mexico from 24N to 26N on Tue night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Winds will briefly become northwest to north to moderate to fresh speeds Mon morning till early afternoon, then become southwest to west at gentle to moderate speeds Mon night. Winds will again briefly become northwest to north at moderate to fresh speeds in the mornings till the early afternoon hours during Tue and Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: light to gentle winds will dominate the gulf most of the forecast period with seas of 4-6 ft in long period SW swell, building to 5-7 ft Wed night as another set of long period SW swell reaches the coast of Central America. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are forecast during the next several days, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period southerly swell, building to 5-7 ft Wed night as long period SW swell reaches the coast of Panama and Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southwest winds are expected to the south of the monsoon trough with axis along 8N-9N, with light to gentle variable winds north of trough. Seas are forecast to build to 6-7 ft in long period SW swell between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands beginning on Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure, centered well north of the area near 45N138W, southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure, remnants of recent Tropical Depression One-E, is nearly stationary near 13N130W with a central pressure of 1012 mb. The small cyclonic circulation of the low is clearly exposed, with moderate to fresh north to northeast winds within 240 nm of the low in the NW quadrant. A swirl of low-clouds around the center is evident on last visible images over the area from 11N to 15N between 128W and 134W. Isolated showers are possible within the cyclonic circulation. Seas to 8 ft are present within 120 nm of the low in the NE quadrant, and also within 60 nm of the low in the NW quadrant. The low is forecast to weaken to a trough late on Tue, while drifting southward and at the same time the high pressure to its north begins to build southward. Northwest swell producing seas with peak values of up 10 ft is affecting the forecast waters N of 22N between 117W and 136W. Recent altimeter data confirmed these sea heights. Seas are forecast to subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon morning. As previously mentioned, a 1010 mb low pressure remains embedded within the monsoon through near 11N114W. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N to 16N between 110W and 118W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to support this convective activity. According to the global models, the low should persist over the next 48 to 72 hours as it tracks in a general west direction. $$ Aguirre