000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130941
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun May 13 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
09415 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to 
07N78W to 07N90W to 10N100W to low pressure near 11N114W 1012 mb
to another 1012 mb low near 14N130W and to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 180 nm south
of the axis between 115W and 117W, and within 60 nm south of the
axis between 78W and 79W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm south of the axis between 89W and 91W, and also 
within 30 nm of the axis between 105W and 107W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The combination of low pressure over the southwestern United 
States that covers the northern and central Mexico, with high 
pressure that noses eastward towards northern Baja California 
and the northern section of the Gulf of California continues
to induce a tight gradient over those areas. This gradient 
presently supports southwest winds of 20 to 25 kt across the 
northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. The 
gradient will relax enough just after daybreak to allow for these
winds to diminish to the moderate to fresh speeds, with seas of 
3 to 5 ft. Winds over the rest of the gulf will be light to 
gentle at mostly gentle speeds. The moderate to fresh winds over 
the northern Gulf of California will also become light to gentle 
variable winds this afternoon. These winds then become southeast 
to south at gentle to moderate speeds tonight, and south to 
southwest fresh to strong winds for a brief time during the 
overnight hours. They then become light to gentle variable winds 
on Mon, with a repetition of the fresh to strong south to 
southwest winds during Mon night. Weak low pressure is forecast 
to form Tue on the northern segment of the Gulf of California 
thermal trough. This will bring cyclonic winds of gentle to 
moderate speeds over the northern gulf Tue, however the low is 
expected to become diffuse by early Tue evening allowing for 
winds to become variable at light speeds. 
 
Northerly gentle to moderate winds will remain over the offshore
waters W of Baja California through Tue afternoon, then increase
to fresh to strong winds beginning Wed night as high pressure W 
of Baja California strengthens slightly and while at the same
time it builds east-southeastward. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in long 
period NW swell, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft tonight. Over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, winds will briefly become NW to N at moderate to 
fresh speeds early on Mon before becoming moderate to south to 
southwest winds during Mon afternoon. 

Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly light to gentle 
winds are expected today. with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long period 
southerly swell. Winds will briefly become NW to N at moderate 
to fresh speeds early on Mon before becoming moderate south to 
southwest winds during the afternoon.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are 
expected across the Gulf of Papagayo through early this afternoon,
then become variable gentle to moderate winds. Seas are forecast
to be in the 4 to 6 ft range through most of tonight before they
become moderate east winds early Mon, then mainly gentle south 
to southwest winds through Mon night and northeast to east 
gentle to moderate winds during Tue.
  
Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate SW winds are 
forecast during the next several days, with seas of 4 to 6 ft 
in long period southerly swell through Mon before subsiding 
slightly Tue.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure, centered well 
north of the area near 46N136W, southeastward to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure, remnants of recent Tropical 
Depression One-E, is nearly stationary near 14N130W with a 
central pressure of 1013 mb. The small cyclonic circulation of 
the low is clearly exposed, and will become ill-defined with 
time. Latest satellite imagery shows a weakening isolated 
thunderstorm well to the northeast of the low within 30 nm of 
15N127W. The low is forecast to begin to drift southward this 
afternoon through tonight as the high pressure ridging to its N 
begins to build southward. The low is then forecast to open up to
a trough Mon afternoon.

Northwest swell producing seas with peak values of up 12 ft
upstream of 32N, will continue to propagate south-southeastward 
to the south of 32N reaching as far south as 22N by early this
afternoon before decaying below 8 ft by tonight.

As previously mentioned, a 1009 mb low is embedded within the 
monsoon through near 11N114W. Latest satellite imagery shows 
broad cyclonic turning with the low-level clouds associated
with this low, however, deep convection within its immediate 
vicinity is limited and observed to be rather sporadic. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is within 270 nm of the low
in its S quadrant, and within 30 nm of 11N112W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 30 nm of 12N113.5W. A 
diffluent pattern aloft to the east of a mid to upper-level 
trough, that is located roughly between 110W and 120W and north 
of 12N as seen in water vapor imagery, is helping to support the 
aforementioned convective activity. In addition, this activity is
under broad anticyclonic flow that may help to sustain it, and
any additional activity that may develop, well into the upcoming
week. According to the global models, the low should persist 
over the next 48 to 72 hours as it tracks in a general west to 
west- southwest direction.
 
$$
Aguirre