000 AXPZ20 KNHC 122047 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N78W to 07N90W to 11N100W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N112.5W to 07N120W to 1012 mb low pressure near 13N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 04N to 07N E of 79W to the coast of Colombia, within 120 nm S of axis between 82W and 90W, from 07N to 11N between 102W and 111W, and elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 110W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deep low pressure over the southwestern United States and northwest Mexico is creating a tight pressure gradient across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. SW to W winds of 20 to 30 kt, with seas to near 8 ft will persist across that area through tonight. Then, expect moderate to fresh winds Sun and Sun night with seas subsiding to 3 to 5 ft. Recent scatterometer data show mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds across the remainder of the gulf, with moderate to locally fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California with seas of 6-8 ft in long period NW swell. These marine conditions will persist on Sun. Seas will subside to 5-7 ft by Sun evening. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly light to gentle winds are expected through Sun, with seas of 5-7 ft in long period southerly swell. Winds will shift to the NW and N Sun night and Mon and briefly increase to 15-20 kt. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight into Sun morning, then diminishing thereafter. Seas are forecast to be in the 4 to 6 ft range through early next week. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate SW winds are forecast during the next several days, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long period southerly swell through Mon before subsiding slightly Tue. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure, centered well north of the area near 47N135W, southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure, remnants of Tropical Depression One-E, is located near 13N130W with a central pressure of 1012 mb. The small cyclonic circulation of the low is clearly exposed, and will becomes ill-defined with time. Latest satellite imagery shows a small cluster of moderate convection well removed to the northeast of the cyclonic circulation. The low is forecast to weaken and eventually opens up to a trough by Mon. Northwest swell producing seas of 8 to 11 ft, based on altimeter data, will continue to propagate south of 32N reaching as far south as 22N by early Sun afternoon before decaying below 8 ft by Sun night. Seas of 8 ft south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 120W are the result of fresh southwest flow and cross- equatorial SW swell. Seas will subside to less than 8 ft by late Sun. As previously mentioned, a 1010 mb low pressure is embedded within the monsoon through near 10N112.5W. Moderate to isolated strong convection covering roughly the waters from 08N to 15N between 109W and 116W is associated with this low. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. This low will persist over the next 48-72 hours while moving westward. $$ GR