000 AXPZ20 KNHC 112123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 12.8N 129.5W at 11/2100 UTC, moving WNW or 295 degrees at 3 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas are 8 to 11 ft within about 150 nm NE semicircle of center based on recent altimeter pass. The prevailing strong westerly wind shear removed all the convection from the depression, which now consists of a tight swirl of low clouds. It is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. Please see NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N80W to 08N90W to 10N104W to 1011 mb low pressure near 09N111W to 11N122W. The intertropical convergence zone stretches from 09N131W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N between 94W and 110W. Similar convection is also noted from 05N to 14N between 110W and 120W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deepening low pressure over the southwest United States is creating a fairly tight pressure gradient across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. A recent ASCAT pass indicates southerly winds of 20-25 kt across the northern Gulf of California, particularly N of 29N E of 114W. Winds are forecast to further increase to 30 kt tonight and then again Sat night with seas building to 8 or 9 ft. Expect gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft across the remainder of the gulf during the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate winds will dominate the offshore waters W of Baja California with seas of 6-9 ft in long period NW swell. These marine conditions will persist this upcoming weekend. Seas will subside to 5-7 ft by Sun night. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly light to gentle winds are expected through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected through Sun with seas of 4-6 ft. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate SW winds are forecast during the next several days, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1034 mb high pressure located north of the area near 43N136W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The high pressure will move northward while weakening. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.D. One-E is supporting generally moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the region west of 130W. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will continue to propagate south of 32N reaching as far south as 22N by early Sun afternoon before decaying below 8 ft by Sun night. Seas will reach 8 ft south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W starting Sat due to the fresh SW flow and southerly, cross- equatorial swell. Seas will subside below 8 ft by late Sun. $$ GR