000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 12.7N 129.0W at 11/1500 UTC, or around 1245 nm WSW of Cabo San Lucas, moving W or 280 degrees at 4 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are 8 to 11 ft in the area of strong winds. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm east quadrant of the center of the depression. Strong upper-level winds are expected to cause weakening, and the depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight or early Saturday. Please see NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N80W to 08N90W to 10N105W to 09N112W to 11N122W. The intertropical convergence zone stretches from 09N130W to 10N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 08N between 104W and 110W. Similar convection is also noted from 05N to 11N between 93W and 103W, and from 05N to 09N between 110W and 120W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Deepening low pressure over the southwest United States is creating a fairly tight pressure gradient across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte. Westerly winds will increase through today, and fresh to strong SW to W gap winds will commence later today. Localized winds may reach 30 kt over the northern Gulf of California north of 30N near relatively low lying valleys along the Baja California peninsula. These winds will be persistent enough to support relatively high waves of 8 ft tonight through Sat night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh northerly winds off Baja California Norte will diminish as high pressure west of the area weakens, but swell to 8 ft will linger beyond 90 nm north of 24N through Sun. Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly light to gentle winds are expected through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected through Sun with seas of 4-6 ft. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate SW winds are forecast during the next several days, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure north of the area near 41N137W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge is weakening and shift northward, and is supporting generally moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the region west of 130W. Northerly swell in excess of 8 ft will continue to propagate south of 32N reaching as far south as 22N by early Sun before decaying below 8 ft. Upper diffluence is helping to induce areas of showers and thunderstorms S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 110W. Seas will reach 8 ft south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 120W starting Sat due to the fresh SW flow and southerly, cross-equatorial swell. These marine conditions will persist through late Sun. $$ GR