000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110855
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
855 UTC Fri May 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression One-E is centered near 12.6N 128.6W at 
11/0900 UTC, or around 1185 nm WSW of Cabo San Lucas, moving 
W-NW or 280 degrees at 9 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1006 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. 
Seas are 8 to 12 ft in the area of strong winds. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted within 90 nm northeast of the center
of the depression. T.D. One-E will maintain its current 
intensity through the 12 to 24 hours then start to weaken due to 
the effects of increasing upper shear. Please see NHC 
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO Headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
for more details. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to T.D. ONE-E near 12.6N 
128.6W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 
09N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
from 05N to 09N between 95W and 105W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Deepening low pressure over the southwest United States creating
a fairly tight pressure gradient across the northern Gulf of
California and Baja California Norte. Westerly winds will
increase through today, and fresh to strong SW to W gap winds
will commence later today. Localized winds may reach 30 kt over 
the northern Gulf of California north of 29N near relatively low 
lying valleys along the Baja California peninsula. These winds
will be persistent enough to support relatively high waves of 8 
to 9 ft tonight down fetch toward the eastern shore of the 
northern Gulf of California. The strong westerly gap winds will
pulse Sun and Sun night before diminishing early next week as the
low pressure weakens. 

Meanwhile, moderate to fresh northerly winds off Baja California
Norte will diminish as high pressure west of the area weakens, 
but swell to 8 ft will linger beyond 90 nm north of 24N through 
early next week. 

Farther south in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, mainly light to gentle
winds are expected through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 
4-6 ft in long period southerly swell.
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected 
through Sun with seas of 4-6 ft. 
  
Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate SW winds are 
forecast during the next several days, with seas of 4-6 ft in 
long period southerly swell.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from 1033 mb high pressure north of the area 
near 40N137W to the Revillagigedo Islands. The ridge is weakening
and shift northward, and is supporting generally moderate trade 
winds over the region west of 125W, outside of the area near T.D.
One-E, and light and variable winds between 110W and 125W.
Despite the lighter wind regime, northerly swell in excess of 8
ft will propagate south of 32N reaching as far south as 22N by
early Sun before decaying below 8 ft. A broad upper trough 
between 95W and 100W north of 10N is interacting with moderate 
to fresh SW flow south of the monsoon trough to support areas of
showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough between 95W 
and 105W. Seas will reach 8 ft south of the monsoon trough 
between 100W and 105W starting Sat due to the fresh SW flow and 
southerly, cross- equatorial swell.
 
$$
Christensen