000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The area of disturbed weather located near 11N126W this morning has developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical depression at 10/2100 UTC, moving WNW or 295 degrees at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. The depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. The NHC official forecast calls for the depression to have a short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner. Please, see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N88W to 08N98W to 1010 low pressure near 09N107W to T.D. ONE-E near 12.4N 126.5W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 10N between 82W and 90W, and from 04N to 10N between 94W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 110W and 118W, and within 120 nm S of ITCZ axis W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1031 mb located N of area near 39N138W extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted under the influence of the ridge, with seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 27N W of 117W. These marine conditions are forecast to persist N of Punta Eugenia through Fri night. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected S of Punta Eugenia with seas of 6 to 8 ft through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwesterly flow will develop N of 30N on Fri, and persist through Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach 30 kt on Fri and Fri night, and then again Sat night. These winds will be associated with a low pressure located over the far northern Gulf. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Mainly light to gentle winds are expected through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period southerly swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected Fri through Sun with seas of 4-6 ft. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate SW winds are forecast during the next sevaral days, with seas of 4-6 ft in long period southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1031 mb located N of area near 39N138W extends a ridge across the north waters, particularly N of 16N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over the SW CONUS is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NW winds N of 27N between 117W and 124W with seas of 8-10 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less over the forecast waters tonight, but NW swell with seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, mainly N of 26N E of 134W through Sat. In addition, the pressure gradient between the ridge and T.D. ONE-E is also producing moderate to fresh NE winds N of the ITCZ and W of 130W, with seas near 8 ft based on latest altimeter data. $$ GR