000 AXPZ20 KNHC 102100 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The area of disturbed weather located near 11N126W this morning has developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical depression at 10/2100 UTC, moving WNW or 295 degrees at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are in the 8 to 11 ft range. The depression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind environment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. The NHC official forecast calls for the depression to have a short life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner. Please, see latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N88W to 08N98W to 1010 low pressure near 09N107W to another 1008 mb low pressure near 12N126W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues from 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 10N between 82W and 90W, and from 04N to 10N between 94W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 110W and 118W, and within 120 nm S of ITCZ axis W of 130W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1031 mb located N of area near 39N138W extends a ridge across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted under the influence of the ridge, with seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 27N W of 117W. These marine conditions are forecast to persist N of Punta Eugenia through Fri night. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected S of Punta Eugenia with seas of 6 to 8 ft through the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwesterly flow will develop N of 30N on Fri, and persist through Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach 30 kt on Fri and Fri night, then again Sat night. These winds will be associated with a low pressure located over the far northern Gulf. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds will resume late Sat night. Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast through this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A persistent broad and elongated area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1008 mb surface low at 12N126W, or about 1150 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm NE guadrant of low center. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 9 ft are also seen within about 150 nm NW semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions will become more unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation over the next day or so as the system continue westward into an area of increasing shear. Based on latest marine guidance, the low will reach a position near 13N127.5W early Fri morning, and near 13N129.5W early Sat morning while the chances of tropical cyclone formation will continue to diminish. Long period northwest swell in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas across the area from 10N to 17N W of 126W will subside to less than 8 ft later today. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 9 ft are affecting the waters N of 28N between 118W and 124W. These winds are forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less later today but NW swell with seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue to spread across the forecast area, particularly N of 27N between 117W and 131W over the next couple of days. $$ GR