000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1446 UTC Thu May 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC. 
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N90W to 08N100W to
1008 mb low pressure near 12N126W to 08N130W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection can be found from 05N to 12N between 80W and 90W, from
03N to 08N between 100W and 108W, from 10N to 13N between 113W
and 118W, and within 90 nm S of ITCZ axis W of 133W.
  
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1029 mb located N of area near 38N140W extends a
ridge across the offshore forecast waters W of Baja California.
Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted under the influence of the
ridge, with seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 29N. These marine 
conditions are forecast to persist N of Punta Eugenia through 
Fri night. Gentle to moderate NW winds are expected S of Punta 
Eugenia with seas of 5 to 7 ft through Sat. Early on Sun, seas 
of 8 ft in NW swell are forecast to reach the NW part of 
forecast zone PMZ013, affecting mainly the waters N of 23N W of 
117W.
     
Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwesterly flow will 
develop N of 30N on Fri, and persist through Sun. Winds are
forecast to reach 30 kt Fri evening and Sat evening. These winds
will be associated with a lows pressure located over the far
northern Gulf. 
  
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds will
resume late Sat night.   
  
Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is 
forecast through this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A persistent broad and elongated area of low pressure is analyzed
as a 1008 mb surface low at 12N126W, or about 1150 miles 
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. 
A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted 
within 180 nm NE guadrant of low center. Fresh to strong winds 
and seas to 9 ft are also seen within about 150 nm NW semicircle 
of the low. Environmental conditions will become more 
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation over the next day or 
so as the system continue westward into an area of increasing 
shear. Based on latest marine guidance, the low will reach a 
position near 13N127.5W early Fri morning, and near 13N129.5W 
early Sat morning while the chances of tropical cyclone 
formation will continue to diminish.

Long period northwest swell in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas across 
the area from 10N to 17N W of 126W will subside to less than 8 
ft later today. 

Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 9 ft are affecting
the waters N of 28N between 118W and 124W. These winds are
forecast to diminish to 20 kt or less later today but NW swell
with seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue to spread across the
forecast area, particularly N of 27N between 117W and 131W over
the next couple of days.
   
$$
GR