000 AXPZ20 KNHC 100340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 10N97W and through an embedded 1010 mb surface low at 11N112W, then continues southwest to 08N117W, then turns northwest to 10N122W. The monsoon trough resumes southwest of the previously mentioned tropical low at 10N128W to 08N128W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to beyond 08N140W. Scattered strong convection is observed from 10N to 13N between 96W and 102W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of a line from 04N92W to 13N117W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast ridge will meander beyond 250 nm seaward of northern Mexico the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northwest flow, and 7 to 10 ft seas currently north of 29N west of the Baja Peninsula will spread a little further south, with the extent of 8 ft seas reaching along 26N on Thu before beginning to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwesterly flow will develop along 30.5N early Fri, and spread across the waters north of 30N through Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds will resume late Sat night. Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast through this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A persistent broad and elongated area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1009 mb surface low at 11N 124.5W, or about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is currently observed within 210 nm over the east, and within 90 nm over the west semicircles of the low. Environmental conditions will become more unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation over the next day or so as the system continue westward into an area of increasing unfavorable shear. A blend of global guidance results in a solution of a surface low, or tropical cyclone, near 12.5N126.W on Thu night accompanied by strong winds mainly over the north semicircle. The low, or tropical cyclone, is forecast near 14N127W on Fri night. Long period northwest swell in the form of 6 to 8 ft seas across the area from 11N to 21n west of 132W will subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are forecast across the subtropics, generally north of 25N east of 124W through early Fri followed by a another round of north swell in the form of 8 to 11 ft seas forecast north of 28N between 117w and 132W. $$ Nelson