000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091606
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed May 09 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1515 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

A broad and elongated area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1008 
mb surface low at 11N123W. Convection has slightly decreased 
during the last several hours being mainly concentrated in the 
west semicircle of the low within 225 nm of its center. A blend 
of global guidance results in a solution of a surface low, or 
possible tropical cyclone near 12N124W on Thu afternoon with 
minimal gale force winds mainly over the north semicircle. The 
system is forecast to continue northwestward into an area of 
increasing unfavorable shear on Thu, likely hindering further 
development of this system. Model guidance suggest winds will 
diminish to near gale force by Thu night/early on Fri.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of 
Panama at 08N78W to 06N95W through a surface low near 09N104W to 
11N113W to a 1008 mb low near 11N123W to 07N130W. The ITCZ 
begins near 07N130W and continue to 07N136W just east of a 
surface trough along 139W. The ITCZ then resumes beyond 06N139W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 
04N to 07N east of 85W and from 02N to 05N between 90W and 94W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander about 250 nm seaward 
of northern Mexico the remainder of the week. Fresh northwest 
flow, and 5 to 7 ft seas currently north of 29N west of the Baja 
Peninsula will gradually increase as the pressure gradient 
tightens with locally strong winds forecast this afternoon 
through early Fri. The associated northerly swell will propagate 
as far south as 26N on Thu before beginning to subside from the 
south. 
     
Gulf of California: Light, mostly southerly flow forecast 
through today, except moderate nocturnal drainage flow expected 
near gap areas. Guidance continues to suggest fresh to strong 
southwesterly flow developing along 30.5N on Fri, and continuing 
into early Sun.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: No gap winds event forecast through early 
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate winds will end this afternoon and 
resume Sat morning continuing through Sunday. 
  
Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is 
forecast through this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
Refer to special features section for a warning associated with 
a tropical low pressure near 11N123W.

A surface trough, remnant of a cold front, extends southwest 
from 30N130W to 23N139W. Long period northwest swell in the form 
of 7 to 8 ft seas across the area north of 13N west of 130W will 
subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. 

Seas of 8 to 11 ft are forecast across the subtropics, generally 
north of 24N east of 124W late in the week.
   
$$
Ramos