000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090351
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed May 09 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0345 UTC. 
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

A persistent broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1012 mb 
surface low at 10.5N 122.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is observed within 210 nm over the northeast 
semicircle of the low. Environmental conditions are favorable 
for slow development over the next few days as the low moves 
moves northwestward, then shear conditions may become more 
unfavorable. A blend of global guidance results in a solution of 
a surface low, or tropical cyclone, near 12.5N124W on Wed night 
accompanied by minimal gale force winds mainly over the north 
semicircle. The low, or tropical cyclone, is forecast near 
13N126W on Thu night with gale conditions out about 75 nm over 
the north semicircle.  

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends west-southwest from the Pacific coast 
of Costa Rica at 09N85W to 07N95W then turns northwest to 
12N104W, then west to 13N116W, then turns southwest through the 
surface low at 10.5N122.5W to 07N129W where scatterometer winds 
indicate a transition to an ITCZ which continues west to beyond 
07N140W.  Isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm 
either side of a line from 05N83W to 05N93W. scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is observed within 150 nm either side 
of a line from 13N102W to 10N111W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander about 250 nm seaward 
of northern Mexico the remainder of the week. Fresh northwest 
flow, and 5 to 7 ft seas currently north of 29N west of the Baja 
Peninsula will gradually increase as the pressure gradient 
tightens with locally strong winds forecast by Wed afternoon 
through early Fri. The associated northerly swell will propagate 
as far south as 26N on Thu before beginning to subside from the 
south. 
     
Gulf of California: Light, mostly southerly flow forecast 
through the middle of the week, except moderate nocturnal 
drainage flow expected near gap areas.  Guidance continues to 
suggest fresh to strong southwesterly flow developing along 
30.5N on Fri and continuing into early Sun.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to locally strong northerly winds 
will end around sunrise on wed morning. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate nocturnal winds will end after 
sunrise on Wed.   
  
Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is 
forecast through this week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
Refer to special features section for a warning associated with 
a tropical low pressure developing near 12N123W.

A weak cold front extending southwest from 32N130W to 23N140W 
will dissipate on Wed. Long period northwest swell in the form 
of 7 to 10 ft seas across the area north of 13N west of 130W 
will subside to less than 8 ft on Thu. 

Seas of 8 to 11 ft are forecast across the subtropics, generally 
north of 24N east of 124W late in the week.
   
$$
Nelson