000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080349 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 08 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC.d Ed move into the far northwest waters this morning with strong southerly flow, and 6 to 8 ft seas, preceding the front across the discussion waters north of 29N overnight. Although the front will stall and wash out from near 32N131W to 23N140W by late Tue, ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A persistent broad area of low pressure is analyzed as a 1010 mb surface low at 09N121W. Environmental conditions are favorable for slow development over the next few days as the low moves moves northwestward. A blend of global guidance results in a solution of a surface low near 12N121W late Tue accompanied by strong to near gale force winds. The forecast is for minimal gale force conditions to develop within 75 nm over the north semicircle of the low near 12N123W on Wed, and continue through early Fri when environmental conditions will become less favorable. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of Panama at 09N78W to 07N83W to 11N103W through an embedded surface low at 09N121W to 06N135W where scatterometer winds indicate an ITCZ develops and continues west to beyond 06N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm either side of a line from 06N85W to 08N94W, and within 240 nm either side of a line from 10N98W to 13N108W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from near 21N116W to 18N107W through Wed, then retract north-westward as a weak tropical low develops well south of the Mexican offshore waters near 10N108W. A tightening pressure gradient will increase the northwest flow to a fresh breeze, accompanied by 7 to 10 ft seas, across the waters from 29N to 32N west of Baja Norte on Tue with locally strong winds forecast on Wed through early Fri. The associated northerly swell will propagate as far south as 25N on Thu before beginning to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Light, mostly southerly flow forecast through the middle of the week, except moderate nocturnal drainage flow expected near gap areas. Guidance is suggesting fresh to strong southerly flow developing along 30.5N on Fri and continuing into early Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Strong to near gale force northerly flow will continue through sunrise on Tue. The gap event should end by late Wed morning with winds diminished to 20 kt or less. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected through Tue night, followed by moderate nocturnal flow on Wed night. Light to gentle nocturnal flow is then expected on Thu night with moderate flow on Fri night. Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast through this week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to special features section for a warning associated with a tropical low pressure developing near 12N120W. A weakening cold front extending southwest from 32N136W to 26N140W will continue east and weaken to a frontal trough from 32N128W to 24N140W early Wed, and then dissipate by late Wed. Long period northwest swell in the form of 10 to 16 ft seas is expected west of the front today. These large seas will quickly subside to 6 to 9 ft west of the frontal trough early Wed, and further subside to less than 8 ft across the tropics during the middle of the week. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are forecast across the subtropics, generally north of 24N east of 124W late in the week. $$ Nelson