000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 07 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A large area of disturbed weather associated with a 1009 mb pressure center is near 08N120W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally favorable for some development during the next day or two while the disturbance moves generally toward the west-northwest and northwest. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. However, a blend of global guidance indicate that this low will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds Tue morning, strong to near gale-force winds Tue evening to early Wed with gale winds develoing in the NW and SE quadrants of the low Wed morning. Gale force winds are forecast to continue through Thu morning with seas building to 17 ft. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the Pacific coast of Panama at 08N78W to 08N104W to an embedded 1009 mb low near 08N120W to 06N125W. The ITCZ begins near 06N125W and extends west to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed 08N to 14N between 100W and 104W and from 05N to 13N between 113W and 124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 84W and 94W and from 03N to 09N between 124W and 135W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Near gale winds will pulse tonight through sunrise on Tue then winds and seas will gradually diminish through early Wed as high pressure north of the area shift east and winds veer from the east-southeast. Moderate northwest flow will continue across the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Wed. A tightening pressure gradient will increase the northwest flow to a fresh breeze, accompanied by 8 to 11 ft seas, across the waters N of 25N through Thu when it will begin to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Light, mostly southerly flow forecast through the middle of the week, except moderate nocturnal drainage flow expected near gap areas. Guidance is suggesting fresh to strong southerly flow along 30.5N on Fri and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected through Tue night. Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface high is centered near 32N127W with a quasi-stationary ridge extending southeast to 16N112W. A weak cold front moving into the far northwest waters is forecast to stall and wash out by late Tue, however seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected west of the front tonight and early Tue. These seas will quickly subside to 6 to 9 ft Tue night. $$ Ramos