000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 07 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends west from the Pacific coast of Panama at 08N78W to 07N104W to an embedded surface trough that extends north to south from 05N to 11N along 119W. Scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ begins near 06N124W and extends west to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed 08N to 14N between 98W and 106W, from 05N to 12N between 108W and 126W and within 105 nm either side of the ITCZ west of 126W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Near gale force winds expected to persist until early in the afternoon seas maximum of 11 ft downstream of the gulf waters. Near gale winds will pulse again tonight through sunrise on Tue then winds and seas will gradually diminish through early Wed as high pressure north of the area shift east and winds veer from the east-southeast. Moderate northwest flow will continue across the waters west of the Baja California Peninsula through Wed. A tightening pressure gradient will increase the northwest flow to a fresh breeze, accompanied by 8 to 11 ft seas, across the waters N of 25N through Thu when it will begin to subside from the south. Gulf of California: Light, mostly southerly flow forecast through the middle of the week, except moderate nocturnal drainage flow expected near gap areas. Guidance is suggesting fresh to strong southerly flow along 30.5N on Fri and Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected through Tue night. Gulf of Panama: Light to gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast through the middle of the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface high is centered near 30N128W with a quasi-stationary ridge extending southeast to 17N117W. A weak cold front start moving into the far northwest waters this morning. The front is forecast to stall and wash out by late Tue, however seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected west of the front today and early Tue. These seas will quickly subside to 6 to 9 ft Tue night. A broad and convectively active surface trough, or easterly wave is embedded in the monsoon trough/ITCZ near 119W. Model guidance suggests continued slow development to a tropical low near 10N121W on Tue. A blend of global guidance results in a solution of a surface low near 12N122W on Wed accompanied by strong to near gale-force winds. The low should continue northwest reaching near 14N123W on Fri with seas of 10 to 16 ft. $$ Ramos