000
AXPZ20 KNHC 062114
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1858 UTC Sun May 6 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
  
...SPECIAL FEATURE... 

Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Winds will increase to minimal
gale force this evening through sunrise on Mon. The pressure 
gradient will relax late Mon, with near gale winds then 
continuing through sunrise on Tue. The gap event is expected to 
end by late Wed morning with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 06N77W to 07N85W to 07N91W to 
09N113W to 08N120W. The ITCZ extends from 08N120W to 05N130W to 
beyond 05N140W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 07N E of 90W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 100W
and 120W as well as from 06N to 09N between 120W and 130W.


...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to special features section for the latest Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event.

Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, gentle to moderate 
winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail through Wed. NW 
swell will propagate into the offshore waters off Baja California
Norte Wed evening, with seas building to near 11 ft. 
     
Gulf of California: Light winds, with seas 2 ft or less, are
expected through midweek.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected across 
and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of the 
week. Gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast across the Gulf
of Panama through the middle of the week. Light and variable 
winds will continue elsewhere. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
High pressure centered just north of the area near 31N128W will 
lift north- northeast while gradually weakening the next couple 
of days. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW waters
Mon night. The front will usher in a fresh set of NW swell, with
seas peaking near 13 ft over the far NW waters Mon night before 
beginning to subside. Seas associated to the swell will subside 
to less than 8 ft across the tropics during the middle of the 
week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. This 
will tighten the pressure gradient north of the area off the 
coast of California. This will generate a northerly swell, which 
will propagate into the waters N of 29N and E of 125W by Wed 
night. 

Embedded within the active convection between 100W and 120W, 
mentioned in the monsoon trough section above, is a westward 
propagating trough/wave with axis near 115W. This feature will 
be one to watch with interest the next several days as there is 
the potential for further organization into a tropical low by the
middle of the week, further intensifying as it tracks northwest 
late in week. 
   
$$
AL