000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061515 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1416 UTC Sun May 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: Minimal gale force winds will diminish briefly to near gale force conditions this afternoon before increasing to minimal gale force again this evening through sunrise on Mon. The pressure gradient will relax late Mon, with near gale winds then continuing through sunrise on Tue. The gap event is expected to end by late Wed morning with winds diminishing to 20 kt or less. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N79W to 08.5N88W to 07.5N97W to 09.5N113W to 08N118W. The ITCZ extends from 08N118W to 05N127W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N E of 89W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 102W and 118W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to special features section for the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 4-6 ft range will prevail through Wed. NW swell will propagate into the offshore waters off Baja California Norte Wed evening, with seas building to near 11 ft. Gulf of California: Light winds, with seas 2 ft or less, are expected through midweek. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of the week. Gentle northerly nocturnal flow is forecast across the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Light and variable winds will continue elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered near 30N129W lift north-northeast while gradually weakening the next couple of days. This will enable a cold front to move into the NW waters Mon night. The front will usher in a fresh set of NW swell, with seas peaking near 13 ft over the far NW waters Mon night before beginning to subside. Seas associated to the swell will subside to less than 8 ft across the tropics during the middle of the week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. This will tighten the pressure gradient north of the area off the coast of California. This will generate a northerly swell, which will propagate into the waters N of 29N and E of 125W by Wed night. Active convection between 110W and 120W, mentioned in the monsoon trough section above, is associated with a westward propagating trough/wave interacting with a convectively coupled Kelvin wave. This area of active convection will be one to watch with interest the next several days as there is the potential for further organization into a tropical low by the middle of the week, further intensifying as it tracks northwest late in week. $$ AL