000 AXPZ20 KNHC 052123 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec: A Gale Warning is in effect. Fresh to strong northerly winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected tonight and Sun. Winds will further increase to minimal gale force Sun night into early Mon morning. Seas are forecast to build to 11 or 12 ft with the strongest winds. The pressure gradient will relax some on Mon with near gale conditions continuing through early Tue morning. This late season gap wind event should end by late Wed morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N95W to 08N108W to 06N112W. The ITCZ continues from 06N112W to 04N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 150 nm S of trough E of 95W, and from 12N to 14N between 92W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 04N E of 83W, from 09N to 11N between 104W and 110W, near 12N113W, and near 06N111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to special features section for a warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure of 1022 mb located over the north-central forecast waters near 29N130W extends a ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are expected across the offshore waters W of Baja California during the next several days with seas of 4-6 ft. Seas are forecast to increase to 6-9 ft in long period NW swell N of 29N on Wed, and to 6-8 ft N of Punta Eugenia on Thu. Gulf of California: Moderate W-NW winds are expected across the southern gulf through tonight, with light to gentle W-NW winds elsewhere. Then light, mostly southerly flow is forecast through the middle of next week except moderate nocturnal drainage flow near gap areas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal winds are expected through the middle of next week. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to occasionally moderate northerly nocturnal flow is forecast through the middle of next week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface high of 1022 mb is centered near 29N130W with a ridge extending across the waters N of 15N W of 110W. A cold front has reached the far NW corner of the area where it will stall and then lift N on Sun as another cold front approaches from the W. The new cold front will reach 30N140W Sun night, and extend from 30N135W to 25N140W by Mon night. Fresh to strong S-SW winds will precede the front affecting mainly the waters N of 29N W of 137W Sun evening through Mon morning. A new set of long period NW swell will follow the front, building seas to 14 or 15 ft near 30N140W by late Mon. Model guidance is hinting that a tropical low will develop near 11N115W during the middle of next week and intensify as it tracks northwest and later north. The Easter Pacific Hurricane Season runs from May 15th to November 30th. The Easter Pacific basin extends to 140W. $$ GR