000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042117 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N95W to 08N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N108W to 07N120W to 06N130W to 08N140W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and extends from 11N107W to 06N107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 80W and 90W. Similar convection can be found from 10N to 12N between 107W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 13N between 107W and 112W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1027 mb located north of the area near 34N127W extends a ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is forecast to reach the northern forecast region in about 24 hours. Gentle to moderate winds are noted across the offshore waters W of Baja California based on a recent ASCAT pass. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected N of 29N through Sun, with mainly gentle to moderate winds S of 29N. Seas generally in the 4-6 ft range are expected during the upcoming weekend. Gulf of California: A brief surge of fresh to locally strong NW winds is forecast along the coast of Sinaloa, Mexico, mainly from 22N-25N, and within about 45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes this evening as the pressure gradient tightens some between low pressure over north-central Mexico and the aforementioned ridge W of Baja California. Then, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf of California the remainder of the forecast period. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Saturday night, with very strong to minimal gale conditions possible Sun night, and then again Mon night. This will be associated with a building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas are forecast to build to near 12 ft with the strongest winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate nocturnal winds are expected for the next several nights. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly nocturnal flow is forecast overnight followed by gentle to moderate southwest flow. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1027 mb located north of the area near 34N127W extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh northeast trades from 14N to 20N W of 125W. Seas of 7-9 ft are noted within this area of winds per altimeter data. A cold front currently crossing 142W will reach 30N140W tonight where it will remain nearly stationary through Sat night while weakening. Another cold front will reach 30N140W Sun night, and extend from 30N135W to 24N140W by Mon night. A new set of long period NW swell will follow the front, building seas to 14 or 15 ft near 30N140W by late Mon. $$ GR