000 AXPZ20 KNHC 041548 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 06N95W to 09N109W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N111W to 08N124W to 10N135W to 09N140W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ/Monsoon trough and extends from 11N109W to 07N111W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 80W-88W. Similar convection can be found from 05N-10N between 104W-110W, and from 11N-13N between 108W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N-08N E of 80W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1025 mb located north of the area near 35N127W extends a ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This system is forecast to reach the northern forecast waters in about 24 hours. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected west of the Baja peninsula through Sunday, with 5-6 ft seas. Gulf of California: A brief surge of fresh to locally strong NW winds is forecast along the coast of Sinaloa, Mexico from 22N- 25N, and within about 45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes tonight as the pressure gradient tightens between low pressure over north- central Mexico and the aforementioned ridge W of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected elsewhere. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Saturday night, with very strong to minimal gale conditions possible Sun night, and then again Mon night. This will be associated with a building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas are forecast to build to near 12 ft with the strongest winds. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate nocturnal winds are expected for the next several nights. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly nocturnal flow is forecast overnight followed by gentle to moderate southwest flow. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb located north of the area near 35N127W extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh northeast trades from 11N to 20N W of 126W based on a pair of ASCAT passes. Seas of 7-9 ft are noted within this area of winds per altimeter data. A frontal boundary remains stationary west of the area, and crosses near 30N143W. This front will merge with a new cold front approaching from the W. The new cold front will reach the far NW corner of the forecast region early on Mon, extend from 30N138W to 26N140W by Mon afternoon, and from 30N135W to 24N140W by Mon night. A new set of long period NW swell will follow the front, building seas to 14 or 15 ft near 30N140W by late Mon. $$ GR