000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040945
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri May 04 2018 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is 
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and 
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0945 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the Pacific coast of 
Costa Rica at 09N83.5W to 06N100W, then turns northwest to an 
embedded surface trough at 10N111W. Scatterometer winds indicate 
that an ITCZ develops at 11N114W and extends southwest to beyond 
08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
observed within 240 nm either side of a line from 05N77W to 
06N96W, and from 04N to 15N between 101W and 132W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A northwest to southeast ridge will meander from near 23N116W to 
14N100W for the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh 
northwest flow will continue within 60 nm of the west coast of 
the Baja Peninsula during the evenings for the next few days, 
while gentle northwest flow is forecast elsewhere west of Baja. 
Guidance is suggesting locally strong northwest flow between 30N 
and 32N along Baja Norte on Sat night.   

Gulf of California:  Moderate to locally fresh northwest flow is 
expected through this afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient 
will produce strong winds across the southern Gulf of California 
briefly tonight. 

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next strong event is forecast to begin 
late tonight and continue through Sat.  The northerly drainage 
flow is forecast to increase to near gale force on Sat night and 
continue through late Mon when minimal gale conditions are 
expected to begin.  Gale conditions will then persist through 
Mon night, with seas building to 12 ft downstream near 14.5N 
95.5W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate nocturnal winds are expected for the 
next several nights.  
  
Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate northerly nocturnal flow is 
forecast overnight followed by gentle to moderate southwest 
flow. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
A ridge extending from 32N132W to beyond 28N140W will shift 
southeast today as a cold front sweeps east across the 
discussion waters from 30N to 32N west of 136W this afternoon 
accompanied by strong southerly winds and seas to 8 ft. The cold 
front will stall from 32N136W to 28N140W on Sat, and dissipate 
by Sun as a ridge redevelops from 32N128W to 23N140W. Southerly 
flow will increase north of this ridge on Sun ahead of another 
cold front that will reach from 32N137W to 28N140W early Mon 
accompanied by strong southerly flow that will extend south to 
along 28N.  Large seas of 10 to 15 ft are expected west of the 
front. The front will lose identity on Tue, but seas of 6 to 9 
ft are forecast west of a line 32N125W to 13n140W. 
   
$$
Nelson