000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031509
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 09N88W to 07N96W to 
08N105W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N105W to 10N112W to 
08N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 
from 01N to 07N e OF 80W, and from 05N to 08N between 95W and 
98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between
100W and 111W, from 10N to 15N between 101W and 104W, and from
09N to 14N between 110W and 127W.  

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1029 mb located north of the area near 33N132W 
extends a ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate NW winds are expected 
west of the Baja peninsula through Sunday, with 5-6 ft seas.

Gulf of California: A brief surge of fresh NW winds is forecast 
along the coast of Sinaloa Mexico from 22N-25N, and within about 
45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes Fri night as the pressure gradient
tightens between low pressure over Mexico and the aforementioned
ridge W of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds
are expected elsewhere.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 
region is forecast to begin Saturday night, with very strong to 
minimal gale conditions possible late Mon night, associated with 
building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected tonight
and Fri. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough 
axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are 
expected S of the trough. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
High pressure N of area near 34N133W extends a ridge southward 
across the forecast waters to around 15N. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the ITCZ 
is supporting an area of fresh northeast trades from 08N to 16N 
W of 130W. 8 ft seas are noted near 08N140W in altimeter data. A 
subtropical jet stream transporting deep layer moisture from the 
tropics northeastward into south-central Mexico is expected to 
persist through Friday.

$$
GR