000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030915
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu May 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 06N81W to 09N88W to 
07N98W to 08N105W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N105W to 
10N112W to 08N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is from 05N to 09N between 95W and 103W. Scattered 
moderate convection is within 120 nm north and 60 nm south of 
the ITCZ between 114W and 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure north of the area centered near 34N133W extends a 
ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate NW winds are expected west of 
the Baja peninsula through Sunday, with 5-6 ft seas.

Gulf of California: Moderate NW winds will diminish today. A 
brief surge of fresh NW winds is forecast along the coast of 
Sinaloa Mexico from 22N-25N, and within about 45 nm offshore 
Cabo Corrientes Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 
region is forecast to begin Saturday night, with very strong to 
minimal gale conditions possible late Mon night, associated with 
building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE drainage flow will 
pulse at around 20 kt tonight.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough 
axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are 
expected S of the trough. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
High pressure N of area near 34N133W extends a ridge southward 
across the forecast waters to around 15N. The pressure gradient 
between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the ITCZ 
is supporting an area of fresh northeast trades from 08N to 16N 
W of 130W. 8 ft seas are noted near 08N140W in altimeter data. A 
subtropical jet stream transporting deep layer moisture from the 
tropics northeastward into south-central Mexico is expected to 
persist through Friday.

$$
Mundell