000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030320
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 3 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0300 UTC.
  
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends westward from 10N85W to 08N91W to 
08N104W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N104W to 10N115W to 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 
09N between 92W and 99W. Scattered moderate convection is north 
of the ITCZ from 11N to 15N between 107W and 114W, and within 
120 nm north and 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 119W and 132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure north of the area centered near 34N135W extends a 
ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to near the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate NW winds are expected west of 
the Baja peninsula through Sunday, with 5-6 ft seas.

Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh NW winds behind a cold 
front exiting the region will diminish overnight. A brief surge 
of fresh NW winds is forecast along the coast of Sinaloa, Mexico 
from 22N-25N, and within about 45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes on 
Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec 
region is forecast to begin Saturday night, with very strong to 
minimal gale conditions possible late Mon night. This will be 
associated with a building high pressure in the western Gulf of 
Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE drainage flow will 
develop again in this region overnight, then continue to pulse 
nocturnally at 20 kt through Thu night.

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough 
axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are 
expected S of the trough. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
   
High pressure N of area near 34N135W extends a ridge southward 
across the forecast waters to around 15N. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh northeast trades from 08N to 
16N W of 125W. 8 ft seas are noted W of 135W based on altimeter 
data. These marine conditions will shift W of 140W Thursday. A 
subtropical jet stream transporting deep layer moisture from the 
tropics northeastward into central Mexico is expected to persist 
through Friday.

$$
Mundell