000 AXPZ20 KNHC 022121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N77W to 05N80W to 08N90W to 08N100W to 08N110W. The ITCZ axis continues westward from 08N110W to 07N130W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 90W and 96W, from 11N to 14N between 100W and 103W, and from 11N to 13N between 111W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 84W and 87W, and within about 120 nm S of the ITCZ axis W of 134W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure of 1027 mb located north of the area near 33N134 extends a ridge SE across the waters west of Baja California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over the US Great Basin is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds W of the Baja peninsula. These winds will gradually diminish through tonight as the high shifts southward and weakens. Seas of 6-7 ft in this area will slowly subside to 5-6 ft on Thursday. Gulf of California: As of 1800 UTC, a cold front extends from near the Arizona?Nuevo Mexico border across the State of Sonora, Mexico to near 25N115W. A recent scatterometer pass shows fresh to locally strong southwest winds in the northern Gulf, mainly between 29N-30N with seas of 5-6 ft based on altimeter data. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are also seen across the central Gulf from 27N-28N. These winds will become 20 kt or less by tonight. A brief surge of fresh NW winds is forecast along the coast of Sinaloa, Mexico mainly from 22N-25N, and within about 45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes on Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin Sat night, with minimal gale conditions possible by late Mon or Mon night. This will be associated with a building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE drainage flow will develop again overnight, and continue to pulse nocturnally at 20 kt through Thu night. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to moderate nocturnal flow is forecast through Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are expected S of the trough. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure of 1027 mb located N of area near 33N134W extends a ridge southeastward across the forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong northeast trades from 08N to 12N W of 135W. Seas of 8-10 ft are noted within the area of the trade winds based on altimeter data. These marine conditions will shit W tonight. A pronounced jet stream is transporting abundant deep layer moisture from the tropics northeastward into central Mexico, producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. This deep moisture pattern will change little through Friday. $$ GR