000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020323 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed May 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends westward from 06N77W to 07N98W. The ITCZ axis continues westward from 07N98W to 09N108W to 07N122W to 06N140w. Scattered moderate convection is from 04.5N to 08.5N between 89W and 96W, and from 06N to 10N between 119W and 133W. A large area of scattered moderate to strong convection is north of the ITCZ axis from 11.5N to 15.5N between 104W and 111W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area extends extends a ridge SE west of Baja California. High pressure is present north of 15N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over the US Great Basin is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds W of the Baja peninsula. These winds will gradually diminish through Wed night as the high shifts southward and weakens. 7-8 ft seas in this area will slowly subside to 5-7 ft by early Thursday. Gulf of California: A sharp upper shortwave trough is reflected at the surface as a trough from SW Arizona across the northern Gulf of California and northern Baja. Strong to near gale force southwest to west winds over the northern portion of the gulf and seas to 8 ft will gradually diminish overnight, becoming 15 to 20 kt and 4-6 ft by Wed afternoon. A brief surge of fresh NW winds is forecast along the coast of Mexico from 22N to 25N and within about 45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens somewhat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next episode of strong northerly winds is possible Sat night and Sun as building high pressure in the western Gulf of Mexico induces gap winds across Tehuantepec. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong NE drainage flow will develop again overnight, and continue to pulse nocturnally at around 20 kt through Thu. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to mainly moderate nocturnal flow is forecast through Thu. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the trough axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are expected S of the trough. Seas will be in the 4 to 6 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge, anchored by high pressure centered well north of the area, extends southeastward across forecast waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ is supporting fresh northeast trades and seas of 6-8 ft from 06N to 16N W of 125W. A surface trough along 107W-109W will move slowly westward and weaken during the next couple of days. A pronounced jet stream is transporting abundant deep layer moisture from the tropics northeastward into central Mexico., producing widespread showers and a few thunderstorms. This deep moisture pattern will change little through Friday. $$ Mundell