000 AXPZ20 KNHC 012114 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue May 1 2018 Corrected Discussion section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 07N77W to 07N86W to 07N92W to 07N99W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ axis begins and continues to 07N108W, where it is briefly interrupted by a northeast to southwest oriented trough. It resumes just west of this trough near 09N109W to 07N119W to 08N130W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm south of the axis between 109W and 112W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the axis between 80W and 85W, within 120 nm south of the axis between 85W and 89W, within 120 nm south of the axis between 112W and 114W...and within 60 nm north of the axis between 79W and 81W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm south of the axis between 89W and 94W. ...DISCUSSION...Corrected OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast oriented high pressure ridge, anchored by strong high pressure well north of the area, will prevail through the entire forecast period. A slightly tight pressure gradient between the ridge and broad low pressure over the western United States will continue to support fresh northwest winds across the open waters N of 28N west of the Baja Peninsula. Winds will diminish to a moderate NW to N breeze on Wed night as the strong high pressure north of the area shifts southward and weakens. Current maximum seas of 8 ft in northwest swell within the area of fresh northwest winds will subside to less than 8 ft late Wed night. Gulf of California: Strong to near gale force southwest to winds over the northern portion of the gulf will gradually diminish to strong winds early on Wed, and to less than 20 kt by early Tue afternoon. Model guidance suggests that these winds will become variable of gentle intensity by Wed night. Expect seas to briefly build up to 8 ft tonight, then subside to less than 8 ft Wed afternoon. A brief surge of fresh northwest winds is forecast along the coast of Mexico from 22N to 25N and also within about 45 nm offshore Cabo Corrientes Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens some due to the combination of strong high pressure north of the area shifting southward and troughing that is present just inland the coast of central and northwestern Mexico. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next event of strong northerly winds is expected beyond the forecast period near 12Z on Sun. A rather pronounced jet stream branch extending from the deep tropics northeastward to across central Mexico continues to advect ample deep layer moisture towards central Mexico. Ripples of short-wave energy riding along this jet stream branch, in combination with the deep moisture already in place, are inducing small clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters just along the 250 nm boundary and well to the southwest of the same boundary. The upper-level southwest flow associated with the aforementioned jet stream will continue to advect additional moisture and related convective activity northeastward towards the waters offshore mainly central Mexico. This moisture, in combination with daytime heating and local effects, should provide further impetus for convection to increase over central Mexico through the end of the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally nocturnal strong drainage flow started early this morning and is forecast to continue through the next couple of nights. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to mainly moderate nocturnal flow is forecast for the next several nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue north of the trough axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds remain south of the trough axis. Seas are forecast to be generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and strong surface ridge, anchored by a nearly stationary 1031 mb high centered well north of the area extends southeastward across the forecast waters. Fresh trades along with 7 to 8 ft seas will prevail between the ridge and the ITCZ west of 134W through early Thu. A weak surface trough extending from 14N105W to 07N110W will continue to move westward over the next couple of days. The trough is situated to the southeast of a well pronounced upper level jet stream that is transporting abundant deep layer moisture in the form of overcast to broken mostly mid and high clouds from the central region of the tropics northeastward towards central Mexico. Convective type clouds are underneath these mid and high level clouds, with some producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily from 10N to 15N between 107W and 115W. Expect this pattern of deep moisture and convection to change little through the end of the week. $$ Aguirre