000 AXPZ20 KNHC 010806 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 01 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough axis extends from 07N77W to 07N84W to 07N99W. The ITCZ axis begins near 07N99W and continues to 10N105W then resumes west of a surface trough near 10N107W to 07N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the trough east of 95W and from 07N to 12N between 105W and 123W. Numerous moderate convection is on the western end of the ITCZ from 03N to 07N west of 138W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A northwest to southeast oriented high pressure ridge, anchored by strong high pressure well north of the area, will prevail through the entire forecast period. A slightly tight pressure gradient between the ridge and broad low pressure over the western United States will continue to support fresh northwest winds across the open waters N of 28N west of the Baja Peninsula. Winds will diminish to a moderate NW to N breeze on Wed night as the strong high pressure north of the area shifts southward and weakens. Current maximum seas of 8 ft in northwest swell within the area of fresh northwest winds will subside to less than 8 ft late Wed night. Gulf of California: Fresh to strong southwest winds prevail from 29N to 31N and are forecast to increase to near gale force early today as the low pressure over the western United States deepens. Model guidance suggests that these winds then slowly diminish to strong intensity Wed and become variable of gentle to moderate intensity by Wed night. Expect seas to build up to 8 ft later today, and subside to less than 8 ft Wed. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next event of strong northerly winds is expected beyond the forecast period near 12Z on Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to locally strong drainage flow started early this morning and is forecast to continue through Thu. Gulf of Panama: Gentle to mainly moderate nocturnal flow is forecast for the next several nights. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will continue north of the trough axis, while gentle to moderate south to southwest winds remain south of the trough axis. Seas are forecast to be generally in the 4 to 6 ft range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad and strong surface ridge, anchored by a nearly stationary 1033 mb high centered well north of the area extends southeastward across the forecast waters. Fresh trades along with 7 to 8 ft seas will prevail between the ridge and the ITCZ west of 134W through early Thu. $$ Ramos