000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111550
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Apr 11 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 10N85W to 05N94W to 04N103W to 
07N115W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ axis 
begins and continues to 06N125W to 08N132W to 07N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm south
of the trough axis between 84W and 88W, also within 120 nm north
of the trough axis between 124W and 126W, and within 60 nm south
of the ITCZ axis between 103W and 106W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
through Thu. Strong NW winds and large NW swell will move into 
the waters off Baja California Norte Thu. Strong winds are 
possible across the length of the Gulf of California Fri night 
into Sat. Gale force winds are possible in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Sunday. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds are expected during the forecast period. 
Seas in the 3 to 4 ft range will prevail, except south of 05N 
where southerly swell will maintain seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh gap 
winds are possible in the Gulf of Papagayo by mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and a strong ridge of high pressure over the northern 
waters is producing mainly gentle to moderate trades north of the
ITCZ to about 20N. The present high pressure ridging will
continue to strengthen through resulting a tightening of the 
pressure gradient. This will bring an increase to the trades 
over this area as well as the NW to N winds over the far
northeastern part of the area, where they are forecast to 
increase to the strong range commencing early on Thu and 
expand to the south and west on Fri. NW swell will propagate 
southeastward the next several days, with seas greater than 8 ft 
covering the waters north of a line from Baja California Norte to
08N140W by Thu. A second set of NW swell will move into the 
northern waters Thu night into Fri, bringing seas to near 13 ft 
over the waters north of 25N between 120W and 127W. Yet another 
NW swell will move into the NW waters Sat, with seas possibly 
reaching to near 13 ft over those same waters.

Time lapse satellite imagery display depicts that moisture has
been on the increasing trend over the tropics. As a result,
clusters of scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed
over the tropics, to include that associated with the surface
trough and ITCZ features as described above.

$$
Aguirre