000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101556
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Apr 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 05N103W to 08N114W. The 
ITCZ axis extends from 08N114W to 08N121W to 09N130W to 07N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 
180 nm to the south of the axis between 81W-90W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the axis between 
110W-112W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

NW swell off Baja California will subside below 8 ft today. 
Another round of strong NW winds and large NW swell are expected 
starting Thu. Farther south, fresh to strong winds are expected 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight. Strong winds are 
possible across the length of the Gulf of California as high 
pressure builds over the Great Basin Fri night into Sat. 

Model guidance suggests that the next gale force gap wind for the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec is possible to begin on Sun and into early 
next week, and it may be of strong gale force intensity.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds are expected during the forecast period. 
Seas in the 3 to 4 ft range will prevail, except south of 05N 
where southerly swell will maintain seas of 3 to 5 ft. Fresh gap 
winds are possible in the Gulf of Papagayo by mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

The pressure gradient between lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ and high pressure of 1021 mb centered near 27N129W is 
producing mainly gentle to moderate trades north of the ITCZ to 
20N. The 1021 mb high pressure is forecast to be replaced by 
much stronger high pressure from the northwest on Thu as 
indicated by the global models. The resulting tighter gradient 
will enable for these trades to increase to the fresh to strong 
intensity along with seas maxing out to around 10 or 11 ft. As
the high pressure weakens late on Fri, the gradient will relax
enough to allow for the fresh to strong trades to diminish to
mainly fresh NE to E winds. Light to gentle winds continue 
elsewhere across much of the forecast waters N of 20N, except 
west of a cold front that as of 12Z is along a position from 
30N133W to 26N135W and dissipating stationary front to 24N140W, 
where moderate N-NE winds prevail. Though winds associated to 
this front will remain below 25 kt, the front has ushered in a 
set of NW swell. The swell will propagate southeastward the next 
several days, with seas greater than 8 ft covering the waters 
north of a line from Baja California Norte to 08N140W by Thu. A 
second batch of NW swell will move into the northern waters Thu 
night into Fri, bringing seas to near 13 ft over the waters north
of 20N and west of 120W. Yet another NW swell will move into the
NW waters Sat, with seas once again reaching near 13 ft over the
far NW waters.

$$
Aguirre