000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1535 UTC Sat Apr 7 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 09N83.5W to 07N110W. The
intertropical convergence zone continues from 07N110W to beyond
05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted within 180 nm north and 120 nm south of intertropical
convergence zone between 110W and 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The pressure gradient off the coast of Baja California is
tightening, squeezed between 1021 mb high pressure centered west
of the area near 26N131W, and lower pressure over the southwest
U.S. and north central Mexico. Ship reports off the coast of 
Baja California indicate NW winds are increasing a result, and 
will be fresh to strong mainly off Baja California Norte late 
today as a weak cold front approaches the region from the west. 
The front will start to dissipate as it moves through Baja
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California late today
and tonight. The remnants of the front will accompany weak low 
pressure will migrate southeastward down the length of the Baja 
California peninsula through early next week. The fresh to
occasionally strong NW to N winds along with seas in excess of 8
ft will persist off Baja California Norte through late Sun then
diminish.

Looking ahead, farther south,fresh to strong winds are possible 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Wed as a cold front moves into 
southern Mexico. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Light to gentle winds are expected through the forecast period. 
Seas in the 2-4 ft range will prevail, except for the far 
southern zones where southerly swell will build seas to 4-6 ft 
this weekend. Fresh gap winds are possible in the Gulf of 
Papagayo by mid week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A weakening cold front currently extends from 30N131W to 25N140W.
An altimeter pass west of the front showed seas of 5 to 8 ft,
likely in long period NW swell. The front will shift eastward 
through late today. Associated NW swell will subside below 8 ft 
early Sun.

Elsewhere 1021 mb high pressure centered near 26N131W will 
continue to support mainly light to gentle winds north of 15N and
moderate to occasionally fresh trades farther south. A broad
upper low is centered near 13N142W. Divergence aloft on the
southeast side of the upper low is interacting with trade wind 
convergence to support scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection along the intertropical convergence zone between 110W
and 130W. 

Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the waters 
north of 25N early next week, accompanied by larger NW swell, 
with seas peaking 10 to 15 ft over the waters north of 25N and 
west of 130W waters Tue. NW swell of 8 to 11 ft will cover the 
region north of 15N and west of 130W through mid week.

$$
Christensen